An introduction to the indicators people use to describe where a market cycle may be, and to how unreliable those signals are.
Cycle indicators are widely quoted and widely misread. This miniclass explains what each of the most common measures is calculated from, and what it can and cannot tell an observer.
It walks through funding rates, MVRV, the Pi Cycle, Bitcoin dominance, and sentiment measures, then examines their historical failures, including periods when they gave no useful signal at all. Liquidity differences between assets are discussed as context for interpreting price data.
This lesson contains no buy or sell guidance, no target prices, and no plan of action. Indicators are uncertain estimates about the past and present, not forecasts, and crypto markets can move against any interpretation.
A short introduction to how portfolios are structured: position roles, correlation, storage, and rebalancing as general concepts.
An introduction to why the size of a holding affects portfolio outcomes, and to the concepts commonly used to describe sizing.
A general explanation of why crypto activity can create tax obligations, and why rules differ by country and change over time.